Nifty 50 Analysis
On January 3, the Nifty 50 slipped into negative territory following post-Budget volatility, closing 0.5% lower. However, the index managed to recover more than half of its intraday losses while holding above its short-term moving averages (10-day and 20-day EMAs) and the midline of the Bollinger Bands. Experts suggest that the index may be forming a higher bottom in the short term, especially after surpassing the previous lower high (23,426). If it remains above 23,000, an upward move toward 23,600 (200-day EMA) is possible. Immediate support stands at 23,200.
Support Levels (Pivot Points): 23,261, 23,223, 23,162
Technical Formation:
The Nifty 50 formed a bullish candle with a lower shadow on the daily charts, reflecting buying interest at lower levels. The index defended its short-term moving averages and the midline of the Bollinger Bands on a closing basis, accompanied by above-average volumes. However, it negated the higher highs-higher lows formation seen over the past five sessions.
Bank Nifty Analysis (49,211)
Resistance Levels (Pivot Points): 49,342, 49,452, 49,631
Support Levels (Pivot Points): 48,985, 48,875, 48,696
Resistance Levels (Fibonacci Retracement): 49,409
Support Levels (Fibonacci Retracement): 47,875, 46,078
Technical Formation:
The Bank Nifty rebounded 300 points from its intraday low, defending the 48,900 mark (Budget Day low) and the Bollinger Bands midline before closing 0.6% lower. A Tweezer Bottom pattern was observed on the daily charts, signaling a potential bullish reversal. However, confirmation depends on the next session’s price action. The index also formed a bullish candlestick with minor shadows, indicating volatility, while negating the higher highs structure from the last three sessions.
Nifty Options Data
Call Options Activity:
- The 24,000 strike has the highest open interest (1.82 crore contracts), acting as key resistance.
- Significant open interest was also seen at 24,500 (1.27 crore contracts) and 23,500 (1.23 crore contracts).
- Maximum Call writing occurred at the 23,500 strike (46.81 lakh contracts), followed by 24,000 (45.97 lakh contracts) and 24,500 (34.32 lakh contracts).
- Call unwinding was most notable at 23,800 (-8.54 lakh contracts).
Put Options Activity:
- The 23,000 strike holds the highest Put open interest (89.35 lakh contracts), establishing it as key support.
- The 22,500 (82.49 lakh contracts) and 23,300 (74.53 lakh contracts) strikes also show strong support levels.
- Maximum Put writing was seen at 23,300 (18.56 lakh contracts), followed by 22,800 (17.39 lakh contracts) and 22,500 (15.44 lakh contracts).
- The most significant Put unwinding occurred at 23,500 (-11.83 lakh contracts).
Bank Nifty Options Data
Call Options Activity:
- The 51,000 strike holds the highest open interest (12.87 lakh contracts), serving as strong resistance.
- Other resistance levels include 50,000 (9.75 lakh contracts) and 49,000 (7.31 lakh contracts).
- Maximum Call writing occurred at 51,000 (4.45 lakh contracts), followed by 50,000 (1.34 lakh contracts).
- Call unwinding was observed at 49,800 (-19,080 contracts).
Put Options Activity:
- The 49,000 strike has the highest Put open interest (12.1 lakh contracts), establishing it as a crucial support level.
- Other key Put open interest levels include 48,000 (7.23 lakh contracts) and 50,000 (6.32 lakh contracts).
- Maximum Put writing was observed at 50,500 (1.52 lakh contracts).
- Significant Put unwinding was noted at 49,600 (-17,910 contracts).
Market Sentiment Indicators
Put-Call Ratio (PCR):
- The Nifty PCR remained stable at 0.87, reflecting a neutral sentiment.
- A rising PCR (above 0.7 or nearing 1) indicates bullish sentiment, whereas a decline below 0.7 suggests a bearish outlook.
India VIX (Volatility Index):
- The India VIX rebounded 1.83% to 14.35, recovering from three consecutive declines.
- Despite the uptick, it remains in the lower range and below key moving averages, favoring bullish sentiment.
Market-Wide Derivatives Activity
- Long Build-Up: Seen in 39 stocks (indicating increased open interest and price).
- Long Unwinding: Observed in 47 stocks (falling price along with reduced open interest).
- Short Build-Up: Detected in 113 stocks (rising open interest with falling prices).
- Short-Covering: Noted in 33 stocks (falling open interest with rising prices).
Other Key Observations
High Delivery Stocks:
- Stocks with a high percentage of delivery-based trades suggest investment activity rather than speculative trading.
F&O Ban List:
- No new stocks were added to the F&O ban.
- No stocks remained in the ban list.
- No stocks were removed from the ban.
Disclaimer:
The views and investment recommendations shared by market analysts are their own and do not reflect the stance of Moneycontrol or its management. Investors are advised to consult certified professionals before making financial decisions.
Disclosure: Moneycontrol is part of the Network18 group, which is controlled by Independent Media Trust. Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary of the trust.
